Does it work if you also use the probability of “the player does something”? Today (Sat 5) BetEasy double winnings if Chris Lynn hits 3+ sixes and TAB are paying $3 for Lynn to hit 3+ sixes so the
formula should be
Double winnings(bonus bet) if Lynn hits 3+ sixes = (1/3)x(Bookie Back odds – 1)x0.7 + Bookie Back Odds
If he doesn’t hit 3+ sixes you still lose but not as much.