Richard (MBA)Keymaster4th January 2019 at 3:47 pmPost count: 242
These Big Bash offers are pretty good to get stuck into!
Everyday BetEasy is offering double winnings if a certain player hits a certain amount of sixes or makes a certain amount of runs.
These seem to be profitable amongst lots of Mbers, so dont miss out!jdonksParticipant4th January 2019 at 5:13 pmPost count: 23
How is it guaranteed though if it depends on players achieving a specific thing? Such a number of runs etc?
How would you play it Richard?Richard (MBA)Keymaster4th January 2019 at 6:45 pmPost count: 242
Yeah this offer isn’t guaranteed, but the value is good is you get decent matches.
Just back & lay head to head market, and if the requirement happens, we get double our winnings.
Its similar to the BetEasy US sports offer we had a while back.GavinsMB2018Participant4th January 2019 at 11:42 pmPost count: 23
Hi @Jdonks & @Richard,
Please see the below formula that I use for DOUBLE YOUR winnings to guarantee a profit on each trade!
Double winnings as cash = (Bookie Back odds – 1) x 2 + 1 =
Double winnings as a bonus bet = (Bookie Back odds – 1) x 0.7 + Bookie Back Odds =
This will Guarantee you profit either outcome .
Always back the outsider!
GOOD LUCK!jdonksParticipant5th January 2019 at 6:03 amPost count: 23
Thanks Richard and Gavin for the response.
Thanks for the formula’s Gavin, I’ve used them in the past but for these “if the player does something” bets I was t sure to use them. If you backed and layed a team using the formula and the player didn’t achieve what he needed to and the team you backed won then would you have overlaid and will actually lose money?mjcholeydParticipant5th January 2019 at 12:12 pmPost count: 3
Does it work if you also use the probability of “the player does something”? Today (Sat 5) BetEasy double winnings if Chris Lynn hits 3+ sixes and TAB are paying $3 for Lynn to hit 3+ sixes so the
formula should be
Double winnings(bonus bet) if Lynn hits 3+ sixes = (1/3)x(Bookie Back odds – 1)x0.7 + Bookie Back Odds
If he doesn’t hit 3+ sixes you still lose but not as much.GavinsMB2018Participant5th January 2019 at 3:23 pmPost count: 23
I see what you getting at here but why not rather place 2 separate bets?
Using the formula above for both TAB and BetEasy separately?
Or wont this work?
Cheers.GavinsMB2018Participant5th January 2019 at 3:31 pmPost count: 23mjcholeydParticipant5th January 2019 at 4:07 pmPost count: 3
I’m not sure I follow what you mean. I don’t quite understand which 2 bets. I was just using TAB to
estimate the probability of Lynn hitting 3+ sixes. I couldn’t find a market for Lynn to hit <3 sixes
to cover not getting the bonus.
mjcGavinsMB2018Participant5th January 2019 at 8:40 pmPost count: 23
Ok I understand what you are trying to say now.
You basically trying to hedge your bets!
What I do is I lock in a guaranteed profit on each DOUBLE your winnings offer as per above!
CheersDickie12Participant7th January 2019 at 7:10 pmPost count: 6
I am sorry, But I don’t get this. I do not see a guaranteed profit. It seems like a gamble, which is not what matched betting is about and unlike horse racing bonus bet deals the qualifying losses are likely to be higher and more frequent. For example,
Yesterdays Strikers V Sixers match. Sixers were 2.25 for the win, with double winnings if Henriques scored 40 or more.
Based on above, if I put $30 on sixers and used formula to get 3.8 calculating the lay bet 48.93 at 2.38 for a 67.52 liability, I would have have won $37.5 with the bookie and lost 67.52 at the exchange, meaning a $30.02 loss? (Sixers won and Henriques failed to get us double winnings)
Have I got this all wrong? If so, could someone point me in the right direction?mjcholeydParticipant8th January 2019 at 3:08 pmPost count: 3
You are correct. With these “conditional” double winnings I don’t think you can
guarantee profit. If you can get an estimate of the probability of the “condition”
then by matching the average double winnings payout to a typical match bet, you
will lose less and make profit in the long run. I don’t have the numbers for the
Strikers Sixers match but for the Heat Scorchers match if Lynn hit 3+ sixes then
BetEasy would double winnings. Estimate of Probability for Lynn to hit 3+ sixes
was 1/3 (since TAB were paying $3 for Lynn to hit 3 sixes). So if BetEasy are paying
$2.2 for a Heat win you would match your Scorchers bet so that you get
(BetEasy Stake)*[(1/3)x(2.2 – 1)x0.7 + 2.2].
If you do the maximum BetEasy stake then if Lynn doesn’t hit 3+ sixes you will lose
~$8. If you matched to
(BetEasy Stake)*[(2.2 – 1)x0.7 + 2.2]
you would lose ~$24. If a Scorchers win is paying $1.73 you would have a minimum
~$3 profit no matter who wins but Lynn has to hit 3+ sixes.
I am always happy to be shown the faults of my thinking.GavinsMB2018Participant8th January 2019 at 8:32 pmPost count: 23
@mjchleyd, it seems you are correct here!
I never took into account the extra variable being where a certain event has to take place for the trigger to happen.
Seems like BetEasy was losing alot on the DOUBLE your winnings offers!
Well spotted and thanks!
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