You are correct. With these “conditional” double winnings I don’t think you can
guarantee profit. If you can get an estimate of the probability of the “condition”
then by matching the average double winnings payout to a typical match bet, you
will lose less and make profit in the long run. I don’t have the numbers for the
Strikers Sixers match but for the Heat Scorchers match if Lynn hit 3+ sixes then
BetEasy would double winnings. Estimate of Probability for Lynn to hit 3+ sixes
was 1/3 (since TAB were paying $3 for Lynn to hit 3 sixes). So if BetEasy are paying
$2.2 for a Heat win you would match your Scorchers bet so that you get
(BetEasy Stake)*[(1/3)x(2.2 – 1)x0.7 + 2.2].
If you do the maximum BetEasy stake then if Lynn doesn’t hit 3+ sixes you will lose
~$8. If you matched to
(BetEasy Stake)*[(2.2 – 1)x0.7 + 2.2]
you would lose ~$24. If a Scorchers win is paying $1.73 you would have a minimum
~$3 profit no matter who wins but Lynn has to hit 3+ sixes.
I am always happy to be shown the faults of my thinking.