[mjcholeyd]

in reply to: Big Bash Offers #4341

Hi Dickie12,

You are correct. With these “conditional” double winnings I don’t think you can
guarantee profit. If you can get an estimate of the probability of the “condition”
then by matching the average double winnings payout to a typical match bet, you
will lose less and make profit in the long run. I don’t have the numbers for the
Strikers Sixers match but for the Heat Scorchers match if Lynn hit 3+ sixes then
BetEasy would double winnings. Estimate of Probability for Lynn to hit 3+ sixes
was 1/3 (since TAB were paying $3 for Lynn to hit 3 sixes). So if BetEasy are paying
$2.2 for a Heat win you would match your Scorchers bet so that you get

(BetEasy Stake)*[(1/3)x(2.2 – 1)x0.7 + 2.2].

If you do the maximum BetEasy stake then if Lynn doesn’t hit 3+ sixes you will lose
~$8. If you matched to

(BetEasy Stake)*[(2.2 – 1)x0.7 + 2.2]

you would lose ~$24. If a Scorchers win is paying $1.73 you would have a minimum
~$3 profit no matter who wins but Lynn has to hit 3+ sixes.

I am always happy to be shown the faults of my thinking.

[mjcholeyd]

in reply to: Big Bash Offers #4331

Hi GavinsMB2018,

I’m not sure I follow what you mean. I don’t quite understand which 2 bets. I was just using TAB to
estimate the probability of Lynn hitting 3+ sixes. I couldn’t find a market for Lynn to hit <3 sixes
to cover not getting the bonus.

Cheers

mjc

[mjcholeyd]

in reply to: Big Bash Offers #4327

Does it work if you also use the probability of “the player does something”? Today (Sat 5) BetEasy double winnings if Chris Lynn hits 3+ sixes and TAB are paying $3 for Lynn to hit 3+ sixes so the
formula should be

Double winnings(bonus bet) if Lynn hits 3+ sixes = (1/3)x(Bookie Back odds – 1)x0.7 + Bookie Back Odds

If he doesn’t hit 3+ sixes you still lose but not as much.

[Author]

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